How to measure organized crime?
A series of 13 discussion papers, one for each illicit market considered during the development of the Index.
Read more on globalinitiative.netCriminal markets
5.95
An assessment of the value, prevalence and non-monetary impacts of a specific crime type.
Human trafficking
6.50
Illicit activity involving coercion, deception, abduction or fraud for the purpose of exploitation, regardless of the victim’s consent.
Human smuggling
7.00
Activities by an organized crime group involving the illegal entry, transit or residence of migrants for a financial or material benefit.
Arms trafficking
7.00
The sale, acquisition, movement, and diversion of arms, their parts and ammunition from legal to illegal commerce and/or across borders.
Flora crimes
4.00
The illicit trade and possession of species covered by CITES convention, and other species protected under national law.
Fauna crimes
4.00
The poaching, illicit trade in and possession of species covered by CITES and other species protected by national law. Includes IUU fishing.
Non-renewable resource crimes
2.50
The illicit extraction, smuggling, mingling, bunkering or mining of natural resources and the illicit trade of such commodities.
Heroin trade
7.50
The production, distribution and sale of heroin. Consumption of the drug is considered in determining the reach of the criminal market.
Cocaine trade
8.50
The production, distribution and sale of cocaine and its derivatives. Consumption is considered in determining the reach of the market.
Cannabis trade
6.50
The illicit cultivation, distribution and sale of cannabis oil, resin, herb or leaves. Consumption is used to determine the market's reach.
Synthetic drug trade
6.00
The production, distribution and sale of synthetic drugs. Consumption is considered in determining the reach of the market.
Criminal actors
7.00
An assessment of the impact and influence of a specific criminal actor type on society.
Mafia-style groups
7.50
Clearly defined organized crime groups that usually have a known name, defined leadership, territorial control and identifiable membership.
Criminal networks
6.00
Loose networks of criminal associates engaging in criminal activities who fail to meet the defining characteristics of mafia-style groups.
State-embedded actors
7.00
Criminal actors that are embedded in, and act from within, the state’s apparatus.
Foreign actors
7.50
State and/or non-state criminal actors operating outside their home country. Includes foreign nationals and diaspora groups.
Political leadership and governance
3.50
The State's role in responding to organized crime and its effectiveness. Strong political leadership/governance suggests higher resilience.
Government transparency and accountability
4.00
The degree to which states have put oversight mechanisms in place to ensure against state collusion in illicit activities.
International cooperation
5.50
A country's supranational structures and processes of interaction, policy making and concrete implementation to respond to organized crime.
National policies and laws
5.50
A state's legal action and structures put in place to respond to organized crime.
Judicial system and detention
4.00
Refers to a state’s judiciary’s power to effectively and independently enforce judgments on organized crime-related cases.
Law enforcement
5.00
The state’s ability to investigate, gather intelligence, protect and enforce adherence to its rules and procedures against organized crime.
Territorial integrity
3.50
The degree to which states are able to control their physical and cyber territory and infrastructure against organized criminal activities.
Anti-money laundering
5.00
A state’s ability to implement measures to combat money laundering and other related threats to the integrity of its financial system.
Economic regulatory capacity
4.00
The ability to control/manage the economy and regulate transactions (national and international) for trade to thrive within the rule of law.
Victim and witness support
4.00
Assistance provided to victims of various forms of organized crime, including initiatives such as witness protection programs.
Prevention
4.00
Refers to the existence of strategies, measures, resource allocation, programmes and processes that are aimed to inhibit organized crime.
Non-state actors
5.00
The degree non-state actors are allowed to engage in OC responses and their roles in supporting State efforts/ as watchdogs to governments.
Political leadership and governance
3.50
The State's role in responding to organized crime and its effectiveness. Strong political leadership/governance suggests higher resilience.
Government transparency and accountability
4.00
The degree to which states have put oversight mechanisms in place to ensure against state collusion in illicit activities.
International cooperation
5.50
A country's supranational structures and processes of interaction, policy making and concrete implementation to respond to organized crime.
National policies and laws
5.50
A state's legal action and structures put in place to respond to organized crime.
Judicial system and detention
4.00
Refers to a state’s judiciary’s power to effectively and independently enforce judgments on organized crime-related cases.
Law enforcement
5.00
The state’s ability to investigate, gather intelligence, protect and enforce adherence to its rules and procedures against organized crime.
Territorial integrity
3.50
The degree to which states are able to control their physical and cyber territory and infrastructure against organized criminal activities.
Anti-money laundering
5.00
A state’s ability to implement measures to combat money laundering and other related threats to the integrity of its financial system.
Economic regulatory capacity
4.00
The ability to control/manage the economy and regulate transactions (national and international) for trade to thrive within the rule of law.
Victim and witness support
4.00
Assistance provided to victims of various forms of organized crime, including initiatives such as witness protection programs.
Prevention
4.00
Refers to the existence of strategies, measures, resource allocation, programmes and processes that are aimed to inhibit organized crime.
Non-state actors
5.00
The degree non-state actors are allowed to engage in OC responses and their roles in supporting State efforts/ as watchdogs to governments.
Guatemala is a significant source, transit and destination country for human trafficking, a criminal market that has grown in recent years. Victims tend to be women and girls from across Central America and, to a lesser extent, from Colombia and some African countries.They are forced into sexual exploitation and labour in the agricultural, domestic and textile industries in Guatemala, Belize, Mexico and the United States. Human traffickers are often members of well-organized local criminal groups who work in cooperation with international traffickers, particularly along the Guatemalan border, and have connections with drug-trafficking organizations.
Guatemala’s human-smuggling market is also large and facilitated by its geographical position along a major migration corridor connecting South and North America. Human smuggling has become a livelihood in some rural areas of Guatemala, with many smugglers operating closely with large crime organizations and corrupt authorities.
Positioned along a major arms-trafficking route from South to Central America and the United States, Guatemala is a source, transit and destination country for illegal arms. Arms traffickers are usually part of well-organized mafia-style groups who employ the same routes as drug traffickers, and often work in coordination with them. There are believed to be many more illicit arms than registered ones in Guatemala, partly as a consequence of the country’s internal armed conflict. Arms trafficking is facilitated by a lack of control and understaffing at the country's border posts, and contributes to violence across the country, with more than 80% of homicides being committed with firearms.
Guatemala is a source country for illicit flora trafficking, with Rosewood, a rare species that is present only in a small number of areas across the world, constituting a large part of the market. The Rosewood-trafficking market is controlled by large criminal organizations who work in cooperation with local farmers and criminals from China, where demand for this particular woodis high. Rosewood traffickers also transport scarlet macaws, monkeys and reptilesillegally along similar routes,with many of the animals ultimately being sold to foreign buyers.The unclear demarcation of the Guatemala-Belize border, limited cross-border cooperation, and the low priority given to flora-and-fauna trafficking hinders the Guatemalan security forces' ability to carry out activities against these crimes.
While non-renewable resource crimes are comparably limited, electricity theft and illegal mining are the two main non-renewable-resource crimes that take place in Guatemala.Local communities are largely responsible for the former, and foreign mining multinationals for the latter. Jade is one of the most popular minerals that is extracted illegally –it is estimated that over 95% of production is for the illicit market, with most of it being sent to China.
After Mexico and Colombia, Guatemala is Latin America’s third-largest opium producer. Its heroin trade has grown in recent years and is concentrated along the Guatemalan-Mexican border, at the hands of Mexican cartels and local criminals. The cocaine trade however, is Guatemala’s main illicit-drug market. The country is a major transit point for cocaine produced in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. It arrives by sea, land and air on its way to the United States. As much as 90% of cocaine trafficked into the US passes through Guatemala. Local criminal organizations also produce cocaine, as well as synthetic drugs. The domestic cultivation of coca is reportedly on the rise, but local consumption is minimal. Guatemala is a source, transit and destination country for cannabis, mainly for domestic and regional consumption, although the market is relatively small when compared to other drug types. Synthetic drugs are sourced and transited through the country on their way to Mexico and the United States.
*This indicator was first included in the 2023 iteration of the tool
*This indicator was first included in the 2023 iteration of the tool
Guatemala is home to a number of relatively sophisticated mafia-style groups –most notably, international gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 –who operate mostly in drug-trafficking markets, but also take part in arms trafficking, human trafficking and smuggling, transporting contraband into and out of the country, and extortion. There are both foreign and local gangs in Guatemala, operating predominantly in its main cities. The drug-trafficking groups tend to be organized around a single leader and have moderate membership; whereas those that focus their activities on extortion, money lending and drug peddling are organized in vertical hierarchies, with multiple leaders and large memberships. Some estimates suggest there are between 10000 and 20000 gang members in the country.
While territorial disputes still occur between Guatemala's mafia-style groups, these have been on a downward trend in the past few years, due mainly to a clearer demarcation of their territories and the detention of the most aggressive drug leaders. The more minor gangs in Guatemala are known to be extremely violent, engaging in torture and using small weapons to carry out selective killings or intimidate their extortion victims. The drug cartels are generally less violent, but use more brutal force and high-powered weapons.
Drug trafficking in Guatemala is controlled largely by Mexican drug cartels –for example, the Cartel de Sinaloa, the Cartel del Golfo and Los Zetas – particularly in border regions such as Zacapa, Alta Verapaz and Petén. Because Guatemala is predominantly a transit country for drug trafficking, most of the local gangs and other criminal actors collaborate with the larger international criminal groups that dominate the market.
Guatemala’s criminal markets are all supported by corrupt state-embedded actors, who either facilitate or engage directly in criminal operations. Low- and medium-level law-enforcement entitiesare often associated with gangs, while the drug cartels are reportedly connected across all levels of the state apparatus.
Although the issue of organized crime features in most political campaigns in Guatemala, efforts to fight it have been largely ineffective. Most anti-organized-crime and anti-corruption initiatives have been unsuccessful due to a lack of political support, funding and continuity. In 2019, the Guatemalan authorities ended the mandate ofaUN-backed special anti-impunity commission, which had, since 2007, assisted in the high-level investigation and prosecution of key figures (including former presidents and other high-ranking officials) on corruption charges, as well as trained the prosecutor’s office on how to handle complex crimes.
Despite the existence of anti-corruption and pro-transparency laws, and Guatemala's participation in international treaties and cooperation agreements, organized crime continues to penetrate the country's political system, particularly via links between drug cartels and members of congress, the army and law-enforcement authorities. Collusion between local-level politicians, security forces and criminal organizations is widespread along Guatemala's drug-trafficking routes. These challenges are reflected in the low rate of public trust in Guatemala's authorities.
Guatemala’s does not have robust judicial mechanisms, and its judiciary is therefore not able to deal with a large number of complex cases. Its courts are overloaded, understaffed and limited by lagging bureaucratic procedures and delays, particularly since the departure of the UN's anti-impunity commission. The state lacks control over its 22 prisons, which suffer from extreme violence, poor living conditions and severe overcrowding, mostly due to rampant corruption and understaffing. Because of these poor conditions, organized crime has flourished inside the prisons, which have become operation centres for the country’s most prominent gangs. Guatemala has a number of law-enforcement units, including within the national police force, that specialize in tackling organized crime, drug trafficking, extortion and kidnapping. Although some of these units have had limited success, their work continues to be negatively affected by corruption, understaffing, inadequate resources, a lack of trust and poor coordination with the public ministry's investigators.
Guatemala’s strategic location in a major trafficking corridor between South and North America makes it an important location for criminal operations. In spite of some government programmes that have tried to tackle the issue, its borders are porous and consist of hundreds of blind spots without a state presence. The government also faces serious challenges when it comes to exerting its authority in areas controlled by gangs.
Guatemala’s laws, norms and institutional capacity to combat money laundering are extensive and at least nominally fulfil most international obligations, which makes the country fairly resilient to this activity, as well as to terrorist financing. Legitimate businesses are able to operate relatively freely and to expand, despite restrictive regulations. However, extortion remains widespread in Guatemala, with victims ranging from small to medium businesses (including transport companies, cattle farms, small financial companies and private-security companies), to large multinationals, particularly in the telecommunications sector.
Guatemala has a special unit for crime victims, as well as a witness-protection programme. However, these services tend to be limited in practice and are in many cases provided by civil-society organizations. Crime prevention is a relatively new concept in Guatemala. Until fairly recently, the authorities focused on hard-line strategies designed to punish rather than prevent problems – for example, drug consumption was perceived as a criminal issue rather than a health one. However, there are now some interventions that focus on community services, vulnerable groups and behavioural change.
Civil society and the media play an important role in fighting organized crime in Guatemala. They keep the public informed and promote solutions, despite working in hostile environments. Guatemala is considered one of the most dangerous countries in the Americas for journalists, with many of them being attacked or even killed for their work. Human-rights activists have also been the victims of attacks, making Guatemala the sixth-most-dangerous country in the world for land-rights activists.
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The criminal markets score is represented by the pyramid base size and the criminal actors score is represented by the pyramid height, on a scale ranging from 1 to 10. The resilience score is represented by the panel height, which can be identified by the side of the panel.
A series of 13 discussion papers, one for each illicit market considered during the development of the Index.
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give us your feedbackThe opinions, findings and conclusions stated herein are those of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime and do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Department of State.