The world is at a crossroads when it comes to dealing with illicit economies. Organized crime is undermining democracy, the sovereignty of states, and even international peace and security. The rules-based order that has prevailed for decades is now being exploited by those who don't play by the rules. Criminal groups are some of the biggest profiteers.

Illicit economies reflect broader socio-economic, political and geopolitical processes, because criminals are often the ones who adapt first and take advantage of disruptions such as geopolitical competition, rapid technological innovation, violent conflicts, trade wars and the erosion of democracy. So, the Global Organized Crime Index is not just a tool for measuring crime: it is a mirror reflecting what is going on within states and the international system.

Since this is our third edition, we now have three data sets that enable us to track and compare how criminal markets and actors have evolved over the past five years.

Among the findings the data of this edition of the Index identifies is that there have been several shifts in the global criminal economy. For example, synthetic drugs and cocaine are rapidly dominating world drug markets. This shows the ability of criminal actors to capitalize on changing consumer preferences, technological developments in production and increasingly interconnected trafficking networks.

At the same time, this Index shows a significant and rapidly growing trend: a rise in non-violent forms of crime such as financial and cyber-dependent crimes. These 'invisible' forms of organized crime are less reliant on traditional violent methods or corruption, but have become more embedded in transnational financial and digital systems. And they are often harder to detect. Despite the absence of violence in these illicit economies, they still cause untold harm. Financial fraud and cyber-dependent crimes have high costs for their victims – individuals, businesses and states.

Counterfeiting, another silent crime, is also becoming more pervasive, the Index finds. Inflation, weak economies, job insecurity and trade wars are fuelling this market as consumers with less purchasing power seek cheaper products.

This year's Index also shows that, while state-embedded actors are the most prevalent criminal actors, yet again, foreign actors registered the sharpest overall increase since the last Index in 2023. This suggests criminal groups are increasingly mobile and that there is closer transnational cooperation between them. Private sector actors are also playing an increasingly significant role in illicit economies, particularly as facilitators of criminal activity, for example in logistics, finance and technology.

In addition to analyzing criminal markets and actors, the Index measures resilience. While many criminal markets are witnessing growth, resilience scores appear to have plateaued. An example of this is international cooperation. While this indicator usually outperforms the other 11 resilience indicators, an increasingly fractured international system and a retreat from multilateralism suggest that states are less willing to cooperate to fight crime. This is a worrying trend, not least in this year when we mark the 25^th anniversary of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.

That said, the trajectories of crime can be changed. For example, the Index shows that, statistically, by strengthening key areas of resilience we can reduce the influence of state-embedded actors over illicit activities to a measurable degree, while stronger response measures can shift communities, even societies, into a more positive direction.

The Index is both a record of vulnerabilities and a tool for solutions. By charting trends, risks and trajectories across every country, the Index provides a foundation for action to guide reforms, to strengthen institutions and to empower civil society. Its continuity across editions makes it possible to track change over time, offering not only a mirror of today's realities, but also a compass for the choices that lie ahead. We therefore invite governments, policymakers, civil society and international actors to use the Index as a shared evidence base to transform knowledge into policy, and urgency into action.

Mark Shaw
Executive Director, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime